Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions.
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Day, Jonathan J.
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The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of 'perfect model' experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May 'predictability barrier'. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water r.....
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)14
Essential Ocean Variables (EOV)Sea Ice
Best Practice TypeManual (incl. handbook, guide, cookbook etc)
Spatial CoverageArctic Ocean
CitationMelia, N., et al (2017) Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions. Environmental Research Letters, 12: 084005, 11pp. DOI: 10.1088/1748&x2013;9326/aa7a60
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