Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorMelia, Nathanael
dc.contributor.authorHaines, Keith
dc.contributor.authorHawkins, Ed
dc.contributor.authorDay, Jonathan J.
dc.coverage.spatialArctic Oceanen_US
dc.identifier.citationMelia, N., et al (2017) Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions. Environmental Research Letters, 12: 084005, 11pp. DOI: 10.1088/1748&x2013;9326/aa7a60en_US
dc.description.abstractThe continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of 'perfect model' experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May 'predictability barrier'. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems.en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0*
dc.subject.otherArctic shippingen_US
dc.titleTowards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions.en_US
dc.typeJournal Contributionen_US
dc.bibliographicCitation.titleEnvironmental Research Lettersen_US
dc.bibliographicCitation.issueArticle 084005
dc.description.eovSea Iceen_US
dc.description.bptypeManual (incl. handbook, guide, cookbook etc)en_US

Files in this item


This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Attribution 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 3.0