NOS Procedures for Developing and Implementing Operational Nowcast and Forecast Systems for PORTS.

Abstract

In order to meet its operational oceanographic mission responsibilities, the National Ocean Service/Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (NOS/CO-OPS) will be developing and implementing nowcast and forecast models to support the Physical Oceanographic Real Time Systems (PORTS). These models will be designed to enhance the navigational guidance supplied by PORTS real-time observations by providing information regarding both the present (nowcast) and future (forecast) oceanographic conditions at many locations within an estuary. These models will be developed within CO-OPS, the Coast Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL) and by groups outside of NOS. NOS must ensure that these models have been developed and implemented in a scientifically sound and operationally robust way; that the model’s shortcoming are understood; that the products are clear, understandable, and useful; and that all products and procedures are authoritative in the face of potential legal challenges. It is imperative that the nowcast and forecast systems are developed consistent with user needs and with the operational environment in which they will be run. All models (including statistical models) that produce NOS PORTSsanctioned nowcasts and forecasts in support of safe navigation, whether developed within or outside NOS, will be developed and implemented in adherence to the procedures contained in this document.