Consequence modelling for Arctic ship evacuations using expert knowledge.
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Risk-based decision-making is central to the development of Arctic shipping policy and regulation. Policy-makers within the International Maritime Organization rely on the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology to evaluate proposed regulatory changes and Arctic ship operators rely on it to establish operating limits and procedures. The FSA recommends incorporating life-safety consequence in the assessment of maritime industry risk. This paper presents an expert-based assessment of the factors that influence the potential for loss of life during an Arctic ship evacuation and quantified consequence severities for a range of evacuation scenarios. A two-phased mixed methods design is used to elicit expert knowledge. Sixteen experts in the fields of Arctic seafaring, policy and regulation, academia and research, and ship design participated in the study. Semistructured interviews elicited perspectives on the factors that influence the expected number of fatalities resulting from an evac.....
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)14.a
Maturity LevelPilot or Demonstrated
Spatial CoverageArctic Region
CitationBrowne, T., Veitch, B., Taylor, R., Smith, J., Smith, D. and Khan, F. (2021) Consequence modelling for Arctic ship evacuations using expert knowledge. Marine Policy, 130:104582, 15pp. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104582
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