Measuring Performances, Skill and Accuracy in Operational Oceanography: New Challenges and Approaches.

Abstract

Operational oceanography is now established in many countries, focusing on global, regional, or coastal areas, and targeting different aspects of the « blue », « white » or « green » ocean processes in order to provide reliable information to users. There are nowadays a large variety of interests and users, with different disciplines and levels of expertise. Validation and verification of operational products and systems are evolving in order to anticipate user’s needs, and better quantify the level of confidence on all these variety of ocean products. Operational oceanography evaluation development is in front of key issues: Ocean models are reaching the submesoscale description, which is currently not adequately observed; many products are available now for a given ocean variable, and often discrepancies are larger than similarities; real time forecasting systems are also challenged by reanalyses or reprocessed time series; operational systems are getting more complex, with coupled modelling, where errors from the different compartment need to be carefully addressed in order to measure their performance and provide further improvements. In parallel, the global ocean observing system is continuously completed with additional satellites in the constellation, with innovative sensors on new satellite missions, with efforts to better integrate the global, regional and coastal in-situ observing capabilities, and the design of new instrument, like the BGC-Argo that should bring an enhanced description of the ocean biogeochemical variability. This book chapter provides an overview of the existing, mature, validation and verification science in operational oceanography; discusses the ongoing efforts and new strategies; presents some of the structured groups and outcomes; and lists a series of challenges on the field.