Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles.

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Date
2019Author
Allison, L.C.
Roberts, C.D.
Palmer, M.D.
Hermanson, L,
Killick, R.E.
Rayner, N.A.
Smith, D.M.
Andrews, M.B.
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Show full item recordAbstract
Observational estimates of global ocean heat content (OHC) change are used to assess
Earth’s energy imbalance over the 20th Century.However, intercomparison studies show that the
mappingmethods used to interpolate sparse ocean temperature profile data are a key source of
uncertainty. We present a new approach to assessing OHC mapping methods using ‘synthetic profiles’
generated froma state-of-the-art global climate model simulation. Synthetic profiles have the same
sampling characteristics as the historical ocean temperature profile data but are based on model
simulation data.Mapping methods ingest these data in the same way as they would real
observations, but the resultant mapped fields can be compared to a model simulation ‘truth’. We
use this approach to assess two mapping methods that are used routinely for climate monitoring
and initialisation of decadal forecasts. The introduction of the Argo network of autonomous
profiling floats during the 2000s drives clear improv.....
Journal
Environmental Research LettersVolume
14Issue
Article 084037Page Range
13pp.Document Language
enSustainable Development Goals (SDG)
14.AEssential Ocean Variables (EOV)
Ocean surface heat fluxMaturity Level
TRL 7 System prototyping demonstration in an operational environment (ground or space)Best Practice Type
Manual (incl. handbook, guide, cookbook etc)DOI Original
10.1088/1748-9326/ab2b0bCitation
Allison,L.C., et al (2019) Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles. Environmental Research Letters, 14: 084037, 13pp. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2b0bCollections
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